My 2010 Predictions
First, how did I do with my 2009 predictions?
1. Lakers will win the NBA championship. Bingo! I should get extra points for this one.
2. The Celtics won’t make it to the finals. HA HA!
3. My daughter will achieve a B average. If you factor in the one-grade bump for AP courses, she did it.
4. High foreclosure rate will continue. Uh huh. Looks like it might accelerate too.
5. The median price of homes will continue to decline albeit at a slower pace. Buzzz. Thanks to govt handouts and free loans..err stimulus…median price is seeing some increases
6. We will officially enter a recession. Yuppers
7. Prez Obama will claim he didn’t know how bad it really was. Nope, but he gets no props for not using this one.
8. Apple will become “mortal”. I think we are starting to see some chinks in the armor.
9. I will get a new phone. Yes, an N97.
10. West Los Angeles home prices will finally succumb to significant price declines. Prices are down, but I wouldn’t say significantly.
11. I will gain a new hobby. Darn. Missed this one!
12. I will maintain my weight loss. Yes indeed!
8 out of 12. Not too shabby. Better than last year’s 7 or 15.
- Lakers will repeat as NBA champions. (Yeah, I’m going to ride this one as long as I can!)
- The Celtics won’t make the finals…again. (ditto.)
- Higher interest rates will start, particularly long-term rates.
- Higher mortgage rates will cause havoc in residential home sales
- High foreclosure rate will continue
- High unemployment will continue
- The federal government will begin to see the problem with the the stupid idea of borrowing to get out of a credit crisis. In the long run, it doesn’t work for me and won’t work for Uncle Sam. My guess is that it will manifest itself with a difficulty to sell Treasuries, which will cause rates to rise and cascade into all kinds of other problems.
- A US state will declare bankruptcy.
- The equity markets will realize, like Wile E. Coyote, that you can only remain suspended in mid-air temporarily.
- Apple will release some type of tablet device and it will not only create a new category, but destroy the eBook device market (e.g., Kindle, Sony Reader, B&N Nook, etc.).
- Firmware updates to the N97 will finally make it a flagship device for Nokia.
- With respect to the economy, 2010 will be a year we’d rather forget than remember. It will not be a recovery year, but a year where hard lessons should be learned. (Gawd, I hope I’m wrong on this, but I know we have to pay the piper someday.)